Simply 10 years after the launch of the Tesla Mannequin S, the California-born automaker has risen to #2 within the Golden State amongst all auto manufacturers — for all sorts of automobile and light-weight truck gross sales. That was Tesla’s rating in 2022, solely trailing Toyota. Tesla didn’t simply barely inch out the silver medal both. It was properly forward of #3 Ford and #4 Honda.

The rise within the model’s gross sales in one of many largest auto markets on the earth is gorgeous sufficient. When you think about that it’s on the backs of simply 4 car fashions, and actually simply two (that are shut siblings that many individuals can’t inform aside), it’s thoughts blowing. So, certainly, once we get to the mannequin gross sales charts in a second, some charts are going to look absurd.

Earlier than attending to the particular fashions, although, there are a few model components that I really feel compelled to debate. To begin with, there was Elon Musk’s very public scuffle with some politicians and well being officers within the state, which led right into a collection of cultural and political issues which have spiraled into a really surprising whirlpool of controversies and infrequently misinformation. And, finally, we all know that Elon moved Tesla’s headquarters to Texas. Although, that all the time appeared a bit too slim minded and dangerous. Tesla could have helped California an excellent deal, however California additionally constructed a lot of Tesla. There was the workforce, in fact, which has made Tesla a producing chief and an auto business chief, however there’s additionally the large buyer base, the state EV incentives that helped to create that big buyer base, and the help of many state politicians and officers. And the tech expertise in California is doubtlessly unmatched anyplace on the earth. So, it was in no way stunning that Tesla just lately introduced that its engineering and AI headquarters would nonetheless be in California. I don’t know if that’s solely due to the workforce, or if Elon additionally felt the necessity to get extra constructive PR stepping into California once more. Who is aware of? Possibly we’ll discover out sooner or later.

Whether or not choosing fights with California and Californians or not, there’s a query of future demand for Tesla automobiles in California. Has it peaked and can it shrink now? Will it maintain regular across the present degree for the following few years? Will it proceed to develop? I don’t suppose the preventing and the cultural jabs assist, however I don’t understand how a lot they matter when most individuals are nonetheless simply going to purchase the automobile they suppose is finest. It’s arduous to say. Nonetheless, all of that apart, there are lastly extra interesting, long-range, moderate-cost electrical automobiles available on the market, and the volumes for these automobiles is rising. Many Tesla homeowners are huge Tesla followers. Many others, nonetheless, can be completely satisfied (and even keen) to get an EV from a special model if solely one thing aggressive was accessible. These days, for increasingly more individuals, one thing aggressive is obtainable, however the choices are certainly going to enhance and diversify. As alternate options actually warmth up, will Tesla lose it’s dominance? It might’t stay ⅔ of the EV market ceaselessly. Will it proceed to see its gross sales develop, although, as the general market shifts far more to EVs and because it rolls out extra fashions, just like the Cybertruck and the low-cost car it has within the works?

Briefly, all components thought of, the place does Tesla go from #2?

On to the mannequin rankings for now. …

To begin with, within the total record of high promoting gentle vans and SUVs, the Tesla Mannequin Y was far and away the highest vendor. Equally, within the total record of high promoting automobiles, the Tesla Mannequin 3 was far and away the highest vendor. Trying on the high promoting cars of any class or powertrain, it was the Tesla Mannequin Y at #1 and the Tesla Mannequin 3 at #2. That’s phenomenal — to have each the primary and second finest promoting fashions in one of many largest auto markets on the earth, and inside just some years after they joined the market. To not point out the comparatively excessive beginning costs. The one concern: how sustainable is this sort of efficiency? Can the Tesla Mannequin Y and Mannequin 3 high the gross sales charts like this for years to come back?

Naturally, as the highest promoting automobile and SUV/truck, the Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y additionally carried out very properly of their class rankings. I’ll discus this additional in a separate article, however for now, benefit from the charts.

How about the opposite Teslas? The Tesla Mannequin S led its class, “Luxurious & Excessive-Finish Sports activities Automobiles,” whereas the Tesla Mannequin X led to 4th in its class, “Luxurious Midsize SUVs.”

There have been a pair different notable outcomes from electrical automobiles. The Chevy Bolt got here in fifth within the “small automobiles” class, and the Ford Mustang Mach-E ended within the third place within the “2-Row Midsize SUV” class. (Sure, California has some odd car classes.)

So, once more, what is going to 2023 convey for Tesla? Can it repeat its #2 end on this behemoth of a market? Can it climb to #1? What about 2024, 2025, and so on.?

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Sadly, the media enterprise remains to be a troublesome, cut-throat enterprise with tiny margins. It is a unending Olympic problem to remain above water and even maybe — gasp — develop. So …