Since 2014, many corporations have utilized in California for testing self-driving vehicles. The checklist of corporations which have obtained a allow can be utilized as a measure for the innovation course of related to autonomous car expertise. The graph under reveals how the variety of corporations lively in California has solely elevated steadily from 2014 to the third quarter of 2016. A steep enhance follows in 2017. The slope softens within the first half of 2018.

After all it will be untimely to conclude that we’re already seeing the start of the top of the S-curve which is so typical for innovation processes. And the California AV permits can solely be seen as a proxy for the bigger distributed self-driving car innovation course of at the moment unfolding internationally.

Energetic California AV permits by month (Knowledge from California DMV) Up to date: 2018-11-18 (you may have to reload your browser to see the newest model)

However neither the variety of California AV permits nor the variety of corporations offering self-driving car options will develop indefinitely. The time will come the place the business strikes into the following part, the place the exploratory modes of improvement will likely be changed by extra systematic, managerial approaches and the place commercialization would be the main focus. A shakeout is inevitable. Time could also be operating out for many who nonetheless need to soar onto the self-driving automobile prepare…

Notes:
– 58 permits have been issued by the top of June 2018; One allow has not been renewed (Uber), making it 57 lively permits.

Updates:

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-2018-11-18: By the top of October 2018, the variety of lively permits elevated to 60.

– 2018-09-07: By the top of August 2018, Mando America Company obtained a allow, rising the variety of lively permits to 56.

– 2018-08-07: By the top of July 2018, 2 corporations didn’t renew their permits (Wheego Electrical and Bauer’s Clever Transportation) lowering the variety of lively permits to 55.