The title alone is complicated. Utilizing the identical shorthand as previous Starlink V1 launches, “G5-1” refers back to the first launch of “Group 5” of a constellation. “Group” right here is synonymous with “shell,” which describes a set of satellites that share the identical orbital inclination (the angle at which the orbit crosses the equator) and an identical orbital altitude. Of SpaceX’s three authorised constellations, just one has 5 shells, and that shell can solely exist at 97.6 levels, not 43 levels. SpaceX’s Gen2 constellation technically has 9 deliberate shells, however the FCC has solely partially authorised three of these shells, one in every of which is at 43 levels.

Ignoring the obtuse title, one chance is that facets of Starlink V2 satellite tv for pc upgrades are usually not explicitly tied to the a lot bigger measurement of these satellites and may be utilized to SpaceX’s first-generation Starlink constellation with out requiring a modified FCC license. If SpaceX needed so as to add bigger satellites to its V1 constellation or change the frequency bands they use, it could virtually definitely have to hunt a modified license from the FCC, which might take months.

There is no such thing as a proof SpaceX has performed so, and any try would produce public documentation. The 43-degree inclination SpaceX’s mysterious “Starlink G5-1” launch is focusing on additionally guidelines out any involvement in its V1 constellation, which solely has approval for satellites between 53 and 97.6 levels.

Other than the unlikely chance that particulars concerning the Starlink 5-1 mission are one way or the other incorrect or an artifact of a messy launch licensing course of, there may be no less than one different unlikely clarification. In October 2018, the FCC granted SpaceX permission to launch a really low earth orbit (VLEO) constellation of 7518 Starlink satellites with dimensions much like satellites that make up the 4408-satellite constellation the corporate is presently launching. Greater than 4 years later, SpaceX has but to start launching its authorised VLEO constellation.

In November 2022, SpaceX advised the FCC it supposed to mix its Starlink VLEO and Starlink Gen2 constellations by including V-band antennas to among the virtually 33,000 Gen2 satellites it hoped to launch – a transfer that would scale back the overall variety of Starlink satellites SpaceX must launch. Across the flip of the month, the FCC partially granted SpaceX’s Starlink Gen2 license, including unprecedentedly strict necessities and solely allowing the launch of 7500 of 33,000 deliberate Gen2 satellites to a restricted set of inclinations (33, 43, and 53 levels).

Maybe, then, the uncertainty created by the FCC’s unusual partial Gen2 grant made SpaceX change its thoughts a few devoted Starlink VLEO constellation. Nonetheless, and not using a license modification, SpaceX’s VLEO constellation is caught with the identical smaller (and probably bankruptcy-inducing) satellites that its CEO believes make the primary Starlink V1 constellation unsustainable. SpaceX additionally has lower than two years till its VLEO constellation crosses its first deployment milestone, at which level the corporate might want to have launched half of it (3759 satellites) to keep away from penalties from the FCC – as much as and together with the revocation of its license.

Regardless of the quite a few causes it wouldn’t make sense for Starlink 5-1 to be SpaceX’s first Starlink VLEO launch, virtually 2500 of SpaceX’s authorised VLEO satellites have been supposed to function in a 336-kilometer (~209 mi) orbit inclined by 42 levels – oddly much like the 338-kilometer (~210 mi), 43-degree orbit SpaceX seems to be focusing on with Starlink 5-1.

A shock VLEO launch is a most unlikely clarification, nevertheless it’s solely marginally stranger than the options: that Starlink 5-1 is a V1-sized V2 launch with no prior point out or warning, a V1 launch to an orbit that might explicitly violate SpaceX’s Starlink V1 FCC license, or a paperwork error that has propagated up to now that SpaceX distributed incorrect orbit data (which might threaten different satellites and rockets) lower than two days earlier than liftoff.

Fortunately, there may be one final clarification – raised after this text was revealed – that seems to be more likely. In response to a tweet summarizing these claims, astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell famous that SpaceX had, in actual fact, talked about a 3rd smaller Starlink V2 satellite tv for pc variant in an October 2022 FCC submitting that fell principally below the radar. In that submitting, SpaceX advised that FCC it was growing three variants, not two. The smallest variant was stated to weigh 303 kilograms and featured dimensions seemingly an identical to SpaceX’s current V1.5 satellites, that are estimated to weigh round 307 kilograms. SpaceX additionally acknowledged that preliminary Falcon 9 launches will carry “roughly twenty to sixty satellites,” once more confirming that V2 satellites might be about the identical measurement and form as V1.5 satellites.

SpaceX’s determination to develop a V1.5-sized model of V2 satellites makes little sense within the context of Musk’s implicit claims that issues inherent to its smaller V1 satellites threaten the corporate’s solvency. It’s clearer than ever that the SpaceX CEO might have been stretching the reality of the matter to craft an existential menace that may encourage staff to work longer hours. Nonetheless, growing and launching a V1.5-sized V2 satellite tv for pc variant and starting to launch these satellites whereas SpaceX’s Starlink Gen1 is greater than 25% incomplete is complicated at greatest.

No matter what it’s carrying or why, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to launch Starlink 5-1 out of Florida’s Cape Canaveral Area Drive Station (CCSFS) no sooner than 4:40 am EST (09:40 UTC) on Wednesday, December twenty eighth.

SpaceX’s first “next-gen” Starlink satellites are suspiciously acquainted