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It has been almost two months since Winter Storm Elliott, which introduced excessive chilly circumstances to many of the United States, inflicting power emergencies throughout the nation and electrical energy outages for 1.5 million households, together with rolling blackouts all through the Southeast. Whereas some native outages had been attributable to downed or frozen energy traces, many had been attributable to shortages in energy provide and frozen instrumentation, together with the rolling blackouts skilled by TVA in Tennessee and Duke Vitality in North Carolina. These points additionally ailed different regional grids, however didn’t result in rounds of rolling blackouts like these skilled within the Southeast.
All instances are in Central Customary Time. An power emergency right here encompasses power emergency alerts (EEAs) and most era warnings as declared by the regional system operators. DOE 202(c) Emergency Orders permit particular electrical producing models throughout the area to function at their most era output ranges and exceed air pollution limits with a purpose to keep grid reliability. Sources: ERCOT, SPP Newsroom, MISO, PJM, NC Coverage Watch, WBIR.
Now that the snow has settled from the storm, federal and state regulators can apply some classes that had been realized. Most significantly, wind power and interregional transmission had been integral to retaining the lights on for areas experiencing power shortages and limiting the extent of blackouts in different areas. Moreover, RMI evaluation means that extra wind power and interregional transmission might have probably prevented a few of the rolling blackouts skilled within the Southeast throughout this storm.
Wind Vitality Was Plentiful and Extensively Shared
Renewables carried out effectively throughout the nation throughout Winter Storm Elliott, particularly within the regional electrical energy grids SPP, MISO, and PJM. Wind in these areas steadily generated electrical energy by way of the storm and skilled fewer pressured outages than fossil gasoline sources because of the excessive chilly. In PJM, for instance, preliminary information means that coal and fuel vegetation had been liable for 87 p.c of the pressured outages on December 24, with fuel vegetation representing a disproportionately massive portion (70 p.c).
All instances are in Central Customary Time. TVA’s durations of rolling blackouts are in purple, whereas Duke Vitality’s outage interval is in blue (purple signifies overlap). Sources: PJM Era by Gasoline Kind, MISO Historic Era Combine, SPP Historic Era Combine, SPP Variable Vitality Useful resource Curtailments.
A serious grid savior that prevented widespread blackouts throughout the jap United States was the transmission community connecting totally different regional power techniques, which allowed power to be moved to the place it was wanted. Inter-regional transmission is vital to permit the sharing of present sources in, tight circumstances enhancing grid reliability. Winter Storm Elliott made this completely clear: throughout the storm, power originating from as far north as Canada was used throughout the nation when fossil gasoline turbines had been experiencing outages because of the excessive chilly. Had TVA, Duke, and different areas experiencing tight grid circumstances not been capable of entry imports from their neighbors by way of transmission, blackouts would have undoubtedly been much more widespread.
Areas within the Southeast that skilled blackouts throughout Winter Storm Elliott additionally skilled robust wind circumstances that may have been ripe for added wind era had there been extra wind generators put in, proven within the chart under. Floor-level wind speeds at airports throughout North Carolina, for instance, had been recorded as excessive as 33 miles per hour, effectively above the vary of wind speeds wanted to generate energy at wind generators. But, Tennessee and North Carolina have lagged and infrequently outright opposed constructing new wind sources, and in 2021, wind power in Tennessee and North Carolina represented solely 0.04 and 0.4 p.c of every state’s complete internet era, respectively.
Whereas wind was robust throughout Winter Storm Elliot, that won’t essentially be the case in each winter storm. Within the face of utmost winter climate, a variety of sources (together with wind energy from different areas equipped by way of enough transmission) is important to make sure that the lights keep on and to attenuate the chance of blackouts when one sort of generator is unable to ship, like fuel was throughout this current winter storm.
All instances are in Central Customary Time. Floor wind observations at 3-hour intervals. TVA’s durations of rolling blackouts are in purple, whereas Duke Vitality’s outage interval is in blue (purple signifies overlap).
Restricted Transmission Meant Wasted Renewables
Though power was efficiently shared by way of the prevailing transmission community, that community is stretched to its limits, and in consequence, extra power, particularly wind power, was curtailed (i.e., wasted). Whereas wind sources could also be considerable regionally, if extra wind era can’t be saved or despatched to different areas that want it, it will likely be curtailed. That’s what occurred throughout blackouts within the Southeast throughout Winter Storm Elliot — the central United States had an abundance of wind power that might not be utilized in areas experiencing power shortages and blackouts attributable to inadequate transmission.
At one level whereas TVA was experiencing blackouts on December 23, SPP alone skilled about 3 GW of wind curtailments, proven under. That 3 GW of wasted wind energy is extra power than what might be produced at TVA’s largest coal plant, the Cumberland Fossil Plant, which is deliberate to be retired and changed in 2026. Had this power been obtainable, it might have alleviated the Southeast’s scarcity, each by way of magnitude and length, and stored the lights on for extra households throughout the excessive chilly.
All instances are in Central Customary Time. SPP studies the quantity of wind curtailed in its footprint, whereas MISO and PJM don’t explicitly achieve this. To estimate the quantity of wind curtailed in MISO and PJM, the 2021 annual common curtailment price from LBNL’s “Land-Based mostly Wind Market Report: 2022 Version” was utilized to the reported hourly wind era profile within the two areas. TVA’s durations of rolling blackouts are in purple, whereas Duke Vitality’s outage interval is in blue (purple signifies overlap). Sources: PJM Era, MISO Historic Era Combine, SPP Historic Era Combine, SPP Variable Vitality Useful resource Curtailments, NC Coverage Watch.
Past assuaging outages, extra transmission might have offered important monetary profit for utilities and shoppers. New analyses have discovered that extra interregional transmission throughout Winter Storm Elliott might have created almost $100 million in advantages, and that potential financial savings ensuing from interregional transmission investments have by no means been larger.
Studying from This Occasion
Ongoing investigations from NERC, FERC, and state commissioners will present extra perception into what precisely went flawed and what utilities can do to make sure a extra dependable grid within the face of utmost winter climate. Till then, federal and state regulators can take into account the next insights:
A various set of carbon-free sources (together with transmission, renewable power, battery storage, power effectivity, and demand flexibility) are integral to sustaining grid reliability throughout excessive winter climate. To keep away from the chance of counting on a single sort of useful resource to make sure enough power provide, state regulators and policymakers want to make sure and at instances require {that a} numerous set of sources are being thought-about in utility useful resource planning and reliability planning.
The US grid at the moment is just too fragmented, and extra interregional transmission can each enhance grid reliability and save ratepayers cash. Federal regulators at FERC ought to take into account requiring each a minimal quantity of power switch functionality between regional grids and a strong interregional planning course of because it considers choices to enhance interregional transmission planning.
We are able to get extra out of our present transmission system at the moment by implementing extra options that make it extra environment friendly, equivalent to reconductoring, dynamic line scores, and different grid-enhancing applied sciences (GETs). These applied sciences can shortly and affordably improve the renewable power uptake on the grid, which is much more beneficial throughout tight grid circumstances. Each state policymakers and FERC must be interested by GETs and methods to get probably the most out of our present grid infrastructure.
Attaining a dependable power grid in periods of excessive winter climate isn’t any straightforward feat, however reflecting on previous storms can present beneficial insights about what must be carried out to make sure a extra resilient and dependable grid within the face of utmost winter climate. Doing so will assist be sure that when the temperature drops sooner or later, no one has to fret if the ability will keep on.
By Ashtin Massie, Sarah Toth. © 2023 Rocky Mountain Institute. Revealed with permission. Initially posted on RMI.
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